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Friday, January 28, 2005
What Can We Expect From the Iraq Election?

In spite of the negativity, nay-saying and general pessimism about the future of Iraq, in the face of dire predictions about the plausibility of bringing democracy to the Middle East, Iraq's first democratic election in decades will take place as planned. Opponents of President Bush are trying to either set unreasonable expectations for success or demand, as Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) does, that we abandon the Iraqi people to the tender mercies of the terrorists despite all our promises to them. What effect will the election have on the security situation in Iraq? What can we realistically expect to happen on election day and beyond?

Anyone who expects the election to be almost completely violence-free, as happened in Afghanistan, is trying to set the stage for a declaration of failure. Of course we can expect the terrorists to cause as much violence and mayhem as possible, in an attempt to disrupt voting. This alone should tell the naysayers just how important bringing democracy to the Middle East is, and how vital it is that we never turn back from this goal.

If our enemies don't want democratic governments to flourish, then we must consider that our best weapon against them is democracy itself. Their leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has "declared a fierce war on this evil principle of democracy." Democracy gives people hope, and people with hope for the future don't usually strap on bomb belts or pack their cars with explosives. All sources indicate, however, that the Iraqis' thirst for long-delayed democracy will not be stopped by the thugs and murderers that want to control Iraq.

We can reasonably expect the violence to continue after the election as well, and for some time, though it will hopefully lose steam as the year goes on. When the people of East Timor voted for independence from Indonesia in 1999, terrorist violence actually increased dramatically after the election, as the anti-democracy forces took out their frustration at losing on the populace. Two years later, however, the 2001 election passed without a single incidence of violence.

We're lucky in America; our sore losers mostly just march around carrying signs and chanting pointless slogans, as they did when protesting the President's second inauguration. When they get tired, or when the cameras are off, they just throw the signs away for others to clean up and go out to dinner. More than likely, Iraq will see a surge of violence from the terrorists over the next several weeks, at least until the final election outcome is announced.

Some people are setting artificial goals by which to measure whether the outcome of the election is "successful" or "legitimate." They tell us that there must be a 50% overall turnout, or a certain percentage of Sunni turnout, or a lack of violence before, during or afterwards. Some claim that the United Nations or other Middle Eastern countries must pronounce the election legitimate (as if any of them would know a legitimate election if it wore a neon sign saying, "100% Legitimate, Really, I Swear!").

The only measure of a successful election is whether the Iraqi people feel that they had a chance to cast their vote and have it counted. Unlike Democrats in America, most of them don't seem to feel that the election is only legitimate if they win. After decades of oppression and tyranny, simply seeing a ballot that doesn't let them choose between "Saddam Hussein -or- death for my family" is enough to start with. And if some Sunnis refuse to participate, it only means their voices won't be heard.

According to Reuters, some Iraqi expatriates see the election as an historic event. It's a turning point in the history of their country, if not the world. Some quotes:

"I am ecstatic to have passed through this experience at last. This (election) might cause a difference, not necessarily right away but eventually," said Sara Masoud, a student who has lived in Syria for eight years.

In Australia, Iraqis danced in the streets, twirling scarves and singing, and proudly displaying blue ink on their fingers which told the world they had cast the first votes.

"When I look at the ink on my finger -- this is a mark of freedom," said Kassim Abood, outside a polling booth in a disused furniture warehouse in western Sydney.

"I didn't think I would live long enough to see this moment," said Abood, who decades ago fled the rule of Saddam Hussein to seek asylum in Australia.

"Iraqis are hugging each other, kissing each other, this is a wonderful day," he said. "I am born anew today."

"I am voting out of loyalty for my fellow countrymen, for our great Iraq, for those buried in mass graves and for our martyrs," a weeping Adel Mijbil Qawqaz said at a polling station in the United Arab Emirates.

"This is the first time we can vote with any freedom. I could almost cry," said Yousif Jamil, 52, a former army officer.

Just a few years ago, the thought of a democratic election taking place in Afghanistan or Iraq was laughable. One has taken place, and the other is taking place now. To the likes of Ted Kennedy, Barbara Boxer, Bobby Byrd -- the Angry Liberal Democrats who speak for the party -- this looks like a disaster, a quagmire, a terrible event, a repeat of Vietnam. To the rest of us, it's the birth of a new democracy, and it's amazing.

And as any mother can no doubt tell you, births are almost never easy or painless, though they are nearly always worth it.


UPDATE: And as AlphaPatriot notes, the Iraqi people made their voices heard.

Posted at Friday, January 28, 2005 by CavalierX

Jamie
January 28, 2005   10:14 PM PST
 
".....according to statistics collated by the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), more than a dozen elections around the world in the past two years alone have had voter turnouts of LESS THAN 50 percent -- in Djibouti, Montenegro, Nigeria, Scotland, Mexico, Switzerland, Serbia, Guatemala, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Niger and Hungary."

I don't recall anyone saying that the elections in these countries were not legit!
flythemig29
January 29, 2005   03:16 AM PST
 
It is going to happen whether or not "they" like it. There will be an upswell in violence but we will continue to kill them when "they" stick their heads up out of their spider holes.
Jamie
January 29, 2005   11:07 PM PST
 
OK - its happening now, the day has come - its voting time. Any people who come out to vote there are very, very brave. I hope God is watching out over them today.
Skye
January 30, 2005   10:00 AM PST
 
Aasha Al-Iraq….Aasha Al-Iraq….Aasha Al-Iraq.


The people of Iraq have spoken! A new sun shines on the Nation of Iraq!

and very bad day for the terrorists, france, and liberal media.
JM
January 30, 2005   08:12 PM PST
 
But a great day for freedom, democracy, Iraq and the rest of us. Oppressed people throughout the Middle East are watching this, and asking themselves, "why can they vote, but we can't?" Next, they will begin asking their leaders that question. Dominoes, anyone?
Psychic Ferret
January 31, 2005   08:34 AM PST
 
"and very bad day for the terrorists, france, and liberal media."

The way I count it, that makes a sum total of one group.

"Oppressed people throughout the Middle East are watching this, and asking themselves, "why can they vote, but we can't?""

Because their leaders would shoot them if they voiced that question out loud. The Iraqis had one clear advantage: the US military came in and ass-whooped the dictator and his cronies, against the wishes of the UN (that paragon of global virtue).

Which takes nothing away from the bravery of the Iraqi citizens - how many of us would be willing to die in order to cast our vote?
JM
January 31, 2005   10:19 AM PST
 
Iran is already verging on a democratic revolution. First Bush's words about standing with those who stand for their freedom, and now this, may push it over the edge.
Jamie
January 31, 2005   09:49 PM PST
 
Isn't it amazing that the Sunni's who boycotted the elections, are complaining about being "marginalized" - when they effectively "marginalized" themselves!

==In the heavily Sunni town of Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's hometown, 48-year-old history teacher Qais Youssif said no member of his family had voted.

"The so-called elections were held in the way that America and the occupation forces wanted," Youssif said. "They want to marginalize the role of the Sunnis. They and the media talk about the Sunnis as a minority. I do not think they are a minority.".==

Virtus
February 2, 2005   03:52 AM PST
 
Joe,

Wanted to say thanks for your website. Haven't commented on here too often, but I appreciate your well thought-out, well reasoned arguments.

I don't know if your comparison to Indonesia was entirely comparable to the situation in Iraq, but it is interesting food for thought at worst.

Jamie: Which Lithuanian election are you referring to? The election of President Paksas (sp?) or the subsequent election of Adamkas after the impeachment of Paksas?
Quinton
February 22, 2005   02:25 AM PST
 
We cannot base our faith that Iraq’s democracy will last on a single comparison with East Timor’s experience. We must look at many historical models, pay close attention to the particular details of the Iraqi context, and do what we can now to support the will of Iraqis. In the Iraqi context, a) it is important not to ignore the low participation rates of Sunnis. Iraqi society is not American society. The low turnout rates of minority ethnic groups in America will not have the same results as it would in Iraq. Most of the Muslim countries in the world have Sunni majority populations and Sunni leaders. We cannot shrug off the relative lack of participation of the Sunni portion of the population. Oh, b) they are arising out of a brutal dictatorship, that is true. Furthermore, the dictatorship was overthrown by a government many Middle Easterners don’t care for (refer to the PEW Center’s Global Attitudes Project at : http://people-press.org/pgap). We cannot ignore that this will be a destabilizing factor for as long as American troops are present and probably for many years afterward, even if many or most Iraqis want to elect their own government.

I understand that East Timor was not exactly a place of peace when it held its first elections. East Timor had been ravaged by violence for many years. Despite that history, East Timor seems to be establishing an electoral process of some strength and legitimacy.

There are, however, examples of democracy not taking hold that are more relevant to our country’s experience in foreign conflicts. Vietnam held an election in 1967 that was hailed as a success in the United States despite “terrorist” threats. In fact, the turnout rates in South Vietnam far surpassed any estimates coming out for Iraq. Vietnam’s turnout that year was 83%.

Here is an article from the NYT describing the election.
-------------
U.S. Encouraged by Vietnam Vote: Officials Cite 83% Turnout Despite Vietcong Terror

by Peter Grose, Special to the New York Times (9/4/1967: p. 2)

WASHINGTON, Sept. 3-- United States officials were surprised and heartened today at the size of turnout in South Vietnam's presidential election despite a Vietcong terrorist campaign to disrupt the voting. According to reports from Saigon, 83 per cent of the 5.85 million registered voters cast their ballots yesterday. Many of them risked reprisals threatened by the Vietcong.

The size of the popular vote and the inability of the Vietcong to destroy the election machinery were the two salient facts in a preliminary assessment of the nation election based on the incomplete returns reaching here. Pending more detailed reports, neither the State Department nor the White House would comment on the balloting or the victory of the military candidates, Lieut. Gen. Nguyen Van Thieu, who was running for president, and Premier Nguyen Cao Ky, the candidate for vice president.

A successful election has long been seen as the keystone in President Johnson's policy of encouraging the growth of constitutional processes in South Vietnam. The election was the culmination of a constitutional development that began in January, 1966, to which President Johnson gave his personal commitment when he met Premier Ky and General Thieu, the chief of state, in Honolulu in February.

The purpose of the voting was to give legitimacy to the Saigon Government, which has been founded only on coups and power plays since November, 1963, when President Ngo Dinh Deim was overthrown by a military junta. Few members of that junta are still around, most having been ousted or exiled in subsequent shifts of power…

Before the results of the presidential election started to come in, the American officials warned that the turnout might be less than 80 per cent because the polling place would be open for two or three hours less than in the election a year ago. The turnout of 83 per cent was a welcome surprise. The turnout in the 1964 United States Presidential election was 62 per cent.
---------------
Note how at the end of the article, the writer contrasted the turnout in Vietnam to the turnout for the 1964 American Presidential election. The turnout was not only higher than in America’s 1964 election, it was a higher turnout than had ever been seen in an American presidential election. Millions of South Vietnamese has embraced democracy. They were ready, but it failed. Iraq is in a volatile region as was Vietnam. There are many similarities and many differences between Iraq now and Vietnam in the ‘60s. We cannot predict what will happen in Iraq based on the experience in Vietnam, but it is another indicator of what can happen, just as is East Timor.
JM
February 22, 2005   05:40 AM PST
 
I find Liberal negativity boring, not to mention Liberal mile-long cut and paste posts. If Iraq is not East Timor, it is far less like Vietnam. That comparison has been worn ragged. Give it a rest.
Quinton
February 22, 2005   10:40 PM PST
 
It was a cut and paste post, but only because I wrote it in Word and pasted it here. It was written specifically as a comment to your article, my part of it anyway. I don't think there is anything wrong with pasting an article by another author when it is relevant. You make many references to articles by other authors, and I've seen you post short excerpts. I apologize if I exceeded my word limit for a paste.

That aside - mainly because it isn't the main point but simply another distraction - the Vietnam comparison is incredibly relevant. It is our most recent experience with a protracted war. I know you disagree that the Iraq War can turnout as did Vietnam – many Americans in the ‘60s and ‘70s felt that we could not fail in Vietnam. But that in no way makes Vietnam in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s a poor reference point from which to understand the current situation, especially simply because it has been used too often in your opinion. Of course, we must also examine closely the particulars of the current situation. I am not trying to shove Vietnam down your throat as the ONLY valid reference point, but it is one. I understand that there are successful examples of Democracy taking hold in war-torn countries. South Africa is making a go of it, as is Kenya for the first time in a long while. There are many examples from both sides. East Timor is also a valid reference point, but it’s not the only one.

When you speak to me, remember that I am not your abstract “Liberal.” I’m not the token Liberal you see on FNC. I don’t do liberal commentaries professionally. I’m not even a Liberal; I’m a Leftist. I am also a human, and you shouldn’t be so rude to people who disagree with you, unless you want to continue your site’s self-congratulatory dialogue undisturbed. I can oblige, but I would rather not.

JM
February 22, 2005   10:57 PM PST
 
A Leftist? As in Marxist? I should simply delete your posts on sight. As for relentless, pointless, dogmatic negativity about Iraq, that will only obscure the truth, demoralise America and serve the interests of our enemies. Of course, being a Marxist...
Quinton
February 23, 2005   12:00 AM PST
 
I wouldn’t call myself a Marxist for various reasons, although his influence spans a broad spectrum of thought, so I suppose I am influenced by him in some direct and indirect ways. I would probably classify myself as a radical secular humanist. That’s probably not accurate, but it’s also not relevant to what I’m saying; it’s just another distraction.

Why would you want to delete my posts? If you’ll read what I’ve written, you’ll see that I haven’t actually made any concrete predictions about what will happen in Iraq. I do believe that the Democracy might not hold. I don’t know what will happen. There is no way we can know what will happen. I am also not spewing pointless negativity about Iraq; I am only discussing various reference points from which we might better understand Iraq. I am also admitting that Vietnam is not the only valid reference point. I am being extremely flexible.

Here are two definitions of dogmatism from Dictionary.com:

1) Arrogant, stubborn assertion of opinion or belief.
2) the intolerance and prejudice of a bigot

What I’m saying fits neither of those descriptions. In fact, I believe you’re relying on pure patriotism at this point to defend yourself. There’s a great quote about that: “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.” I am fond of Dr. Johnson.

In closing, I don’t understand why you’re being so bitter. I can assure you that I have no intention of – neither do I unintentionally – support Al Qaeda or other Islamist organizations with violent intentions against the United States. You’re turning your neighbor into your enemy. There’s no room for dialogue when that happens, and I do believe dialogue is essential for democracy. You do think differences in opinion should not be stifled right? If not, that’s fairly totalitarian.

Thank you for dialoguing with me.
JM
February 23, 2005   05:23 AM PST
 
That quote, "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel." is often used to malign patriots these days. In fact, it was originally meant to malign scoundrels. Am I a patriot? Certainly! Do I believe spreading democracy is the right thing for us to do? Absolutely! Do I think Iraq has an excellent chance of becoming the model for Middle Eastern democracies in the future? Damn straight! Given the choice between totalitarianism and freedom, most people will choose freedom... especially those who've already lived under totalitarianism. Ask the Poles and Ukrainians.
As to why I would want to delete your posts, that's because I know your type all too well, and I've had the same conversation a thousand times already. You've already shown your prejudice in your snide remarks about FNC, and your condescending attitude in telling me how I'm supposed to speak to you. Your accusation that I'm "stifling" your opinion is also a typical red herring, as this is not the public square. As for Marxists and Communists, I consider them the enemy of everything that makes this country worth living in.
Quinton
February 23, 2005   01:33 PM PST
 
I'm sorry to have disappointed you. I'll stop commenting here, since it obviously bores you to tears. I am curious as to why you hate Marxists so much. Do you know anything about Marxism? I mean, do you actually know anything about Marxism. I know many flaws in the system and several flaws of the man himself, but I don't see why you'd hate it or him.

Another thing, I don't know if you're right about the original meaning of Dr. Johnson's quote, but it doesn't matter what the original meaning was. It works just as well for the purposes I needed it for. We've changed the meanings of many quotes and words over the millennia. It happens to accommodate the times and needs of contemporary people. Again, it's just another of your distractions. Was that one of Ann’s recommendations?

It doesn't matter, I guess. No matter what I say, I feel like you'll make me your typified "Liberal" person until I go away. You won't listen to anything I say.

And I can hear you replying with something like, " well, if you didn't sound like every other liberal I've ever talked to, maybe we'd have something to say to each other." Again, I'm sorry for letting you down.

I hope you continue to be able to accommodate within your paradigm everything that flies in the face of it, just as I have. Enjoy your self-congratulatory dialogue. It would be a pleasure to meet you someday in the public forum, so you can't shout me down like I'm on your neo-c-only talk show.
Jeff
February 23, 2005   04:21 PM PST
 
Oh my God, Cav, I think you made him CRY.
Quinton
February 24, 2005   12:34 AM PST
 
Only for a few minutes, but I think I can handle the rejection. I'll just talk it out with my liberal therapist.

I lied about not posting here again.
 

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