The fight over Harriet Miers is important for a variety of reasons, not all of them immediately apparent. The main reason, of course, is that lifetime appointments to the all-powerful Supreme Court should not be made lightly -- especially when we are, after decades of Liberal judicial activism, in a position to turn the Court in a more originalist direction at last. The judicial branch of the federal government was never intended to become the instrument of change. The Constitution is the foundation upon which our entire society is built, the framework upon which all our laws are hung. Such an important piece of legal and societal infrastructure should not be altered by the whim of five out of hundreds of millions of Americans.

Yet the composition of the present-day court is not the only incentive to pay attention to the Miers confirmation vote. One reason the vote is so important is that no matter which way it goes, it will help determine who will run on the Republican ticket in the 2008 Presidential race.

Although Presidential races are won or lost by the voters in each state, the nominations for each party's candidate are really set by its base. Only the base is motivated enough, generally speaking, to campaign and vote during the primary elections that determine the party's eventual candidate. Furthermore, most campaign money also comes from the base. No Democrat can get the Democratic nomination without running the gauntlet of that party's Liberal wing, and no Republican can get nominated by that party without passing Conservative muster.

No matter how good a candidate for Chief Justice John Roberts seemed to be, the far-Left groups that control the Democratic party were mostly opposed to his nomination. Roberts was too Conservative, too religious, too normal, too smooth, and too well-liked for the Liberals to accept... and besides, he was nominated by George W. Bush. Not every Democrat who voted against the confirmation of John Roberts was considering a run for President in 2008, but no Democratic Senator considering such a run, or running for re-election in 2006, could afford to vote in Roberts' favor. Jon Corzine of New Jersey had his own reason to oppose Roberts -- he needed to please the Liberal base in preparation for his imminent run for NJ governor. In the end, only 22 Senators voted against John Roberts' confirmation, and that list has quite a bit of overlap with the list of Democratic Senators running in the next election or two:

Daniel Akaka (D-HI) - 2006 re-election
Evan Bayh (D-IN) - possible 2008 Presidential run
Joseph Biden (D-DE) - possible 2008 Presidential run
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
Maria Cantwell (D-WA) - 2006 re-election
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 2006 re-election, probable 2008 Presidential run
Jon Corzine (D-NJ) - seat up for 2006 election, may not be running
Mark Dayton (D-MN) - not running, but seat up for 2006 election
Richard Durbin (D-IL)
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) - 2006 re-election
Tom Harkin (D-IA)
Daniel Inouye (D-HI)
Edward Kennedy (D-MA) - 2006 re-election
John Kerry (D-MA) - possible 2008 Presidential run
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Barack Obama (D-IL) - possible 2008 Presidential run
Jack Reed (D-RI)
Harry Reid (D-NV)
Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) - not running, but seat up for 2006 election
Charles Schumer (D-NY)
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) - 2006 re-election

With the Miers nomination, the shoe is on the Right foot. Many of the more prominent Conservatives are opposed to her sitting on the Supreme Court, and many Republicans question her nomination. As evidence that Ms. Miers is not Supreme Court material continues to accrete, more and more Conservatives are joining the "opposed" camp. The hearing on her nomination, scheduled to begin on 7 November, will tell us nothing. One can almost create a mental picture of Harriet Miers referring to a transcript of the Roberts confirmation hearing before answering every question.

After the hearing comes the vote... and that's the important thing to watch. As with Liberals and Democrats, no Republican who wants the Presidential nomination can afford to flout the Conservative base. If the trend of increasing opposition to the Miers nomination continues -- and there is no reason to suppose it won't -- the Conservative base of the Republicans will be generally opposed to her confirmation.

Watch the votes of Senators George Allen (R-VA), Sam Brownback (R-KS), John McCain (R-AZ), Rick Santorum (R-PA), Bill Frist (R-MI), Richard Lugar (R-IN) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE). Most of them are up for re-election in 2006, and all are reportedly considering a run for President/Vice President in 2008. If all Republican Senators running in 2006 or 2008 vote against Harriet Miers, there's a good chance her nomination could be defeated. Hopefully a serious, proven originalist who doesn't need a "crash course in Constitutional law" (according to Senator and Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, R-PA) before sitting on the country's highest court will be nominated in her place.

That's why vocal and continued opposition to the nomination of Harriet Miers is necessary. Not only is there a chance that our representatives will vote down an inadequate nominee in a fair vote, but we'll get a clearer idea of President Bush's possible successor -- the man or woman who gets to nominate the next round of Supreme Court Justices.

23 Oct 2005 UPDATE: Looks as though columnist George Will agrees with me. In today's column, Will writes:

As for Republicans, any who vote for Miers will thereafter be ineligible to argue that it is important to elect Republicans because they are conscientious conservers of the judicial branch's invaluable dignity. Finally, any Republican senator who supinely acquiesces in President Bush's reckless abuse of presidential discretion -- or who does not recognize the Miers nomination as such -- can never be considered presidential material.

Ahh, but I said it here first. ;)