Sooner or later, we're going to have to admit that Russia isn't half the ally they pretend to be, or should have been. For a while after the fall of the USSR, it seemed that the long fight was over, but it's beginning to look as though that was just wishful thinking. Oh, the happy-go-lucky nineties, when we thought we had no enemies.

Russia has been moving backwards from democracy towards a more totalitarian government for years, a process that has accelerated under former KGB officer Vladimir Putin. Russia has tightened its grip on the former provinces of the USSR, reduced and nearly eliminated opposition parties and local elections, fought and lost a war to reconquer Chechnya, interfered with democratic elections in the Ukraine and spent aid money given for economic reconstruction on the military instead. Between 1992 and 1999, the Russian economy contracted by 25%. Admittedly, it's difficult to change from a doomed collectivist economy to free market capitalism. It's more difficult when the same corruption rampant under the old system remains entwined in the new. It's especially hard when almost no one alive remembers anything but the centralised authority and crushing bureaucracy of Communist rule.

Part of the problem was that most Western nations refused to call the Soviet Union's defeat what it was. An entire nation vanished, and everyone pretended not to notice. Russia was even allowed to retain the Soviet Union's permanent seat on the UN Security Council and the USSR's veto power in NATO, although the USSR no longer exists. This politically-correct policy of walking on eggshells so as not to offend had to be at least partially responsible for Russia's attempts to rebuild its past instead of building a better future, as Germany and Japan did after WWII.

Perhaps only after admitting total defeat can an aggressive dictatorship truly break with its past. Germany was defeated in the First World War, but not broken. As a result, the German government worked to retain whatever military capability it could, training troops in the Soviet Union and simply building more of the smaller warships which were all Germany was allowed. Eventually, their "embarrassment" turned to shame, then outrage, then war. North Korea was beaten to a standstill, but not broken, and now poses a nuclear threat to the world. We saw the same problem in Iraq after the Gulf War. Saddam was beaten, but not utterly defeated. He spent the next twelve years circumventing sanctions to retain his illegal weapons capabilities, buying UN votes and making alliances with terrorist groups.

The Iraq conflict saw the re-emergence of Russia as a serious opponent, and the sooner we admit it the more likely it is that we can deal with the threat diplomatically. Russia had long ago sold its UN Security Council vote to Saddam Hussein in exchange for oil exploitation rights in the West Qurna, Tuba, Saddam, Kirkuk, and Bai Hassan fields under various state-owned companies. In 2002, Russia and Iraq signed a new $40 billion deal for 67 new projects. None of the work was allowed to commence until the UN sanctions were lifted, and the deals would certainly collapse with the removal of Saddam. It was in Russia's best interest to keep Saddam in power and work to lift the sanctions. France and China, of course, made similar deals. All three nations had veto power in the Security Council, which Saddam thought would prevent any action against him.

In 1995, UNSCOM inspectors uncovered evidence that Russia agreed to sell Iraq biological weapons fermentation equipment. The previous year, General Anatoly Kuntsevich was discovered attempting to sell five tons of VX nerve gas components to Syrian agents acting on behalf of Iraq. Kuntsevich allegedly sold another 1,760 pounds of chemical weapons precursors to "unnamed buyers" from the Middle East, none of which was recovered. Russia was also Iraq's number one supplier of conventional military equipment, including missiles that were prohibited by the UN sanctions. When war between the Coalition and Iraq looked inevitable, Russia moved to erase the tracks of its involvement with Iraq. Russian spetsnaz (special forces) troops cleaned out Russian weapons stored at the al-Qaqaa facility, including whatever chemical or biological weapons may have been stored there. In August 2003, former Soviet spy Ion Mihai Pacepa wrote, "The Soviet bloc not only sold Saddam its WMDs, but it showed [him] how to make them 'disappear.'"

Russia continued to train Iraqi spies, in defiance of the UN, until the fall of 2002. Even as Coalition forces moved into Iraq, Russian companies were helping the Iraqi military deploy global-positioning system jammers around Baghdad. The jammers would cause missiles to go astray, hitting random targets. Russia also sold Saddam anti-tank missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, navigation equipment for fighters and night-vision goggles in violation of UN sanctions, possibly hidden in shipments of humanitarian aid. We now know, thanks to documents recently released to the public, that Russian intelligence passed information on American troop levels, deployment and battle plans to Saddam. Clearly, Russia has not been our ally, nor remained neutral.

What does this mean for the future? Russia has formed a close military alliance with China, whose overcrowded masses are doubtless eyeing the almost unpopulated, resource-rich Siberian landscape. The two countries have conducted joint military exercises, and Russia is resuming the Soviet-era alliance with North Korea. All three countries are working on a railway system connecting Asia and Europe. As a possible confrontation with Iran approaches, we must keep in mind that Russia needs the money it receives for helping that country build its nuclear plants, and has similar oil deals with Iran as with Iraq. China needs the price of oil to remain low, or its economy (largely fueled by slave labor manufacturing goods cheaply for US markets) would face a recession. No reasonable person can expect the UN Security Council to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons; Russia and China will not allow it. The question is, just how far will Russia and China go to protect Iran and their economic interests?

Hopefully, the Russian situation is not yet beyond correcting. Careful diplomatic maneuvering could wean Russia from its Chinese alliance, and urge the country back onto the democratic path. It'll be a long time, however, before we can forget Ronald Reagan's admonition to "trust, but verify."