As a new year begins, it's almost impossible to resist trying to predict what it will bring. Naturally, as a Conservative, I look forward to the new year with more optimism than pessimism. Therefore, this is as much a collection of hopes as a series of predictions.
On the home front, the economy will most likely continue to grow at between 3% and 4% overall. When Liberals say that economic indicators like the stock market and unemployment are back where they were in 2000, they're ignoring some essential facts. The late 1990's economy they praise was based on the unstable technology "bubble" that burst in early 2000, plunging us into a recession that was deepened by 9/11. The Bush tax cuts have fueled several years of recovery and solid economic growth. Not even the destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina was able to slow the economy.
The Dow will almost certainly break 11,000 in 2006. New Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke will probably continue Alan Greenspan's policies, at least for now. It's possible that the Fed may stop raising interest rates, and even cut them, by mid-year. If that happens, the stock market will spike, possibly reaching as high as 11,500. The only thing that could harm our economy would be a sudden, sharp rise in oil prices... and that, unfortunately, depends on events in the Middle East.
A showdown with Iran seems likely this year, unless that country halts its nuclear program. Israel will never allow a theocratic Islamofascist state founded on terrorism, whose president declared that "Israel must be wiped off the map," to build nuclear weapons. The only way to avoid either a nuclear-armed Iran or a direct attack on that country may be to blockade the Straits of Hormuz. With their main oil-exporting route closed, the shaky Iranian economy would likely collapse within weeks. Unfortunately, oil prices would probably rise drastically for months, making such a blockade during the winter or summer less likely. China and Europe (with its various struggling economies) would protest any real action against Iran. Things may come to a head in March or April, while we still have a substantial military presence on Iran's doorstep.
Conditions in Iraq will continue to improve despite terrorist activity, forcing the mainstream media to switch its defeat theme from "Iraq is a quagmire" to "the political situation in Iraq isn't perfect." Syria may be forced to scale back support for terrorism, as even the UN is forced to scrutinise Bashir Assad's involvement in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. After some more courtroom antics and delaying tactics, Saddam Hussein will surely be pronounced guilty of ordering the killings at Dujail. The sooner the death sentence is carried out upon him, the sooner the majority of Iraqi insurgents will lose hope, causing a greater split between them and the terrorists. American troop levels will drop as the Iraqis continue to build and train their own military, but look to the Democrats to claim that the President is pulling out because he's finally agreeing with them that we can't win.
The Chinese, meanwhile, will continue to manipulate events in Asia. Their military alliance with Russia and North Korea will embolden them to threaten the US over Taiwan. Secretary of State Condi Rice will have a difficult job this year, as she tries to steer the Russian government away from China, and away from the dictatorship it seems to be slipping into. Putin's plan to give his political party even more control over the process of appointing governors may cause more domestic problems and unrest. If Russia can be swayed back onto the democratic path, however, China may tone down the rhetoric over Taiwan.
The UN will continue to wallow in scandal, corruption and anti-Americanism, despite Ambassador John Bolton's attempts to institute reform. Kofi Annan's tenure is too rife with dishonesty and exploitation to change significantly while he remains the Secretary-General. His term is over at the end of 2006, however.
Without a doubt, there will be disasters around the world this year -- natural as well as man-made. As always, American citizens will respond with aid, while the Left will castigate the Federal government for not taking more of our money and deciding where to send it for us. That won't bother most Americans, however -- the people in front of the cameras are not the people who need the help.
Back home, Democrats will continue to ramp up the anti-Bush rhetoric as the midterm elections approach, despite the fact that President Bush is not up for re-election. They're stuck in permanent campaign mode, and will blindly resist anything the President tries to do during his second term. If they continue to resist fighting the War on Terror with anything approaching seriousness, they may lose a few more seats in Congress, though not enough to give the Republicans a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Fighting judicial nominees like Samuel Alito -- who will be confirmed by the Senate -- will also expose them to the American people for what they are. There may be one more Supreme Court vacancy this year, and the Democrats would do better to hoard what strength they have left.
On the other hand, one of the big issues in the 2006 elections will be illegal immigration. If the Bush administration doesn't do anything to stop the flood of illegals flowing into this country, the Democrats may take control of the issue and even regain control of the Senate, if they can keep their opposition to national security out of the spotlight. It would be difficult for a Democrat to pretend to be serious about keeping the borders secure while opposing other measures designed to keep the country safer.
If President Bush continues to defend himself before the American people, instead of letting political attacks go unanswered as he did during most of 2005, the Democrats will be forced to go even further out on the Liberal limb, losing even more votes. Some politicians who are up for re-election in 2006, like Hillary Clinton, will claim to have been hawks all along, advocate border security, and retain their seats. Unfortunately, Senator Robert Byrd (D-WVa) will likely be re-elected, while Senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa) may lose to Bob Casey Jr. I wonder whether President Bush will campaign as hard for Santorum, who has always supported him, as he did for wishy-washy Senator Arlen Specter (R?-Pa), who frequently stabs him in the back?
Will there be a successful terrorist attack in the USA this year? It's impossible to tell at this point. If Congress doesn't renew -- or significantly weakens -- the PATRIOT Act, a terror attack will certainly be easier to plan and carry out. The same applies to the Democrat attempts to portray the NSA's tapping phone calls to and from known al-Qaeda numbers overseas as "illegal spying on Americans" -- if they manage to gain traction with this non-issue, they may cripple our ability to defend ourselves. Who knows what other fake scandals the Democrats are holding in reserve, ready to spring on the public before the 2006 election?
The best weapon the terrorists have is time, unfortunately. More people will forget about 9/11 this year, as the little emergencies of everyday life push the memories into a corner. Hollywood will continue to do its part to vilify America, capitalism, Christianity and the Bush administration in movies, television and foreign interviews. Liberals will continue to disparage and degrade all the good America does while exaggerating any bad effects, becoming more shrill and divorced from reality as more people grow tired of their rhetoric and stop paying attention to the news and politics. Demotivating centrist and right-leaning voters would be a big victory for the Left.
However, the one prediction I can make with certainty is that the country will endure. I don't doubt that the Left will try their hardest to undermine those things that most Americans believe in, but I have no doubt that they will continue to fail this year.
