It's time for another grueling confirmation battle in Washington, and, during an election year, you can be sure that no stone will be left unturned into a soapbox. Whether politicians come out for or against General Michael Hayden as new head of the CIA, the only thing we can be sure of is that the trial -- I mean, confirmation hearing -- will be loud and ugly.

The resignation of Porter Goss seemed like a surprise to many at the time, but not in hindsight. He was appointed to head the CIA in the wake of three spectacular foreign intelligence failures. The CIA failed to anticipate 9/11, failed to notice that Saddam was moving his weapons of mass destruction out of Iraq and failed to warn us that al-Qaeda, Iraqi criminals and Saddam adherents would work together to create a serious threat to the emerging democratic Iraqi government. After these three strikes, Clinton appointee George Tenet resigned, and Porter Goss was put in place to change the entrenched reactionary bureaucracy that permeated our premiere spy agency. Unfortunately, his power to do so was soon sapped.

The 9/11 commission demanded a new layer of bureaucracy in the form of an "intelligence czar," for which post Bush nominated John Negroponte. This move effectively made Negroponte Goss' boss, reducing the latter's authority. For years, the CIA bureaucracy has been lashing out at Bush by leaking damaging information to the media like a broken sieve, and the leaks only increased. Goss responded by removing some of the entrenched bureaucrats, creating an even more hostile environment in the Agency. The last year has seen a lot of tension between Negroponte and Goss as well, finally culminating in the Goss' resignation and the appointment of Hayden.

President Bush's choice of Air Force General Hayden to head the CIA is an inspired one, on several levels. Hayden knows more about intelligence-gathering -- from both sides of the Iron Curtain, and both sides of the desk -- than most Washington denizens can even imagine. There is no way for opponents to challenge his credentials for the job. Hayden will also have no problem working with Negroponte, having already served as his deputy. In fact, the Director of Central Intelligence will become just that -- a deputy to the Director of National Intelligence. Hayden is under no illusions about the scope or power of his new position. The job of bringing the CIA, which has almost become a rogue agency operating on its own agenda, under Negroponte's control will be an important part of Hayden's new job.

The political strategy behind the nomination is almost self-evident. Democrats (and a few Republicans) will only be able to attack Hayden on two counts, both of which will put them in a bad light with the American public. They will oppose Hayden because he's a general, and the idea of a military man running the CIA -- though it's been done before -- is anathema to them. Admiral Stansfield Turner, for instance, headed the CIA under President Carter. Democrats who attack Hayden's trustworthiness on the grounds that he's wearing a uniform will send the clear message, "we don't trust the military," no matter how they try to disguise it.

The main attack on Hayden will concern the warrantless surveillance on terrorists, which Hayden spearheaded during his time in the NSA. Democrats seem not to have gotten the message that the public generally supports eavesdropping on terrorists, no matter who they're talking to. Attacking Hayden over monitoring terrorists' conversations without a warrant will seem like protecting terrorists from spying. Hayden and Bush seem almost eager for a chance to defend the NSA terrorist surveillance program in a public forum, which would serve as a warning if Democrats weren't so smugly certain they'll win the House and Senate this November.

If the Democrats were paying attention, they could avoid showcasing their distrust of the military and support of privacy rights for terrorists by simply confirming Michael Hayden without a fight. But Democrats pay even less attention to what the people think than Republicans. The chance they will refuse to grandstand in front of the cameras and have their concerned soundbytes played on the evening news is, as always, virtually nil.

I think we can expect a vicious confirmation fight, followed by Hayden's confirmation, a slight rise in Bush's poll numbers as well as those of Republicans in general, and a lot of confusion about all of it on the Left.