As almost everyone knows by now, the Republicans have pushed through both House and Senate a massive Medicare reform bill which has an estimated future cost of $395 billion.

Hard-line Conservatives hate it because it will increase the size of government and cost taxpayers billions.  Hard-core Liberals hate it because poor people will still have to pay something -- it's not completely free.  Many Democrats hate it because it gives President Bush a huge victory, and effectively hijacks what has always been a Democratic hobby-horse.  Some Republicans even hate it, because it gives in to the Democrats.  But many of the voters seem to like it, especially those who will be able to buy their prescription discount cards in the spring.

Yet what if the rest of it's a red herring, an elaborate masquerade?

Just a few months ago, THE big issue for the Democratic Presidental hopefuls was socialised medicine (though of course they would never have called it that).  Every single one of them came up with a different -- and equally disastrous -- plan to bring third-world medical care to the most prosperous nation on Earth. (Imagine a visit to your local hospital being exactly like a visit to the Division of Motor Vehicles office -- same swift, efficient service... same eager devotion to customer satisfaction.)  And these plans seemed to be gathering some momentum.

Suppose you wanted to derail the HELL out of that train, deflate the Democratic Presidential campaign even further, and hasten the coming split in the Democratic party?  But suppose, as a Republican, you also didn't want to annoy your base by shoveling too much taxpayer money into yet another huge government entitlement program?

You might put your name on the top Democratic issue, making every Democratic vote a polarising "damned if you do, damned if you don't" dilemma.  You might make sure that all the heavy expenditures wouldn't start until after the next election, so you have time to repeal or alter most of the measures.  Remember, when President Bush was campaigning in 2000, he promised senior citizens affordable prescription drugs, but hasn't been able to keep that promise until now.   Suppose the rest of this bill was added on just to take the health care issue away from the Democrats for the duration of the campaign season?  Oh, and as to that upcoming split in the Democratic party, Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca), the Liberal's Liberal, was heard to say "No true Democrat will vote for this bill".  Yet 11 Democrats did.  Those who didn't aren't going to look pretty during next year's elections.  Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Call me cynical. Call me crazy.  But I'm willing to bet -- not the farm, just a small wager -- that a great deal of this bill is going to see the business end of a shredder before its provisions take effect in 2006. It will have served its purpose by then.