It's the time of year for predictions. There are plenty I could make that I'd consider less prognostication than pragmatism: Bush wins in November, the Dow hits 12,000 by Easter (though I feel there will also be a slump after that as the bears move in for the summer), jobs rebound, and another successful terrorist attack takes place on US soil (probably soon before the election). Syria desperately staves off disaster by following in Libya's footsteps, giving up WMDs and terrorism support, the situation in Iraq improves drastically and dramatically, and Iraqis participate in free elections in the summer. Those are almost certain to come true, barring some disaster -- like Iran's nuclear "power" program being allowed to come to fruition, and the biggest supporter of terrorism suddenly acquiring nuclear weapons.  There's one prediction, however, that I'm particularly interested in... the breakup of the Democratic Party due to the 2004 election.

There's three possible scenarios involved, and it's not yet possible to predict which will take place. The groundwork is already being laid, the process exposed by Howard Dean's comments about the DLC. When complaining about the other contenders for the Democratic nomination criticising him, Dean said, "even the Democratic Leadership Council, which is sort of the Republican part of the Democratic Party... the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, we're going to need them too, we really are."  This reflects the thinking of his followers, and will reflect back in their actions this year.

Howard Dean is the darling of the radical left-wing of the Democratic Party. They've dragged the party as a whole so far to the left of center as to make a general election unwinnable.  The Classic Democrats, those who still have sense and care about America's future (and there are a few still around) are so appalled by this as to vote against their party line.  Senator Zell Miller (D-GA) and Senator John Breaux (D-LA) are among the most conservative Democrats, considered "traitors to the party" for supporting the defense of America and other sensible policies. As one ranting Liberal wrote in April, "helpers to these traitors to democracy who will join the ranks of Stalin, Hitler and Saddam include centrist Democrats like Zell Miller and John Breaux. And we should also identify the voting districts that send the evil ones and their assistants, and we should boycott their products and services."

Well, at least he had the grace to identify Saddam Hussein as a bad man.

The first possibility is that Howard Dean becomes the Democratic candidate for President.  If this happens, the angry rhetoric from the Left will get more vitriolic and vociferous as we draw closer to November. If you think Howard Dean's "Bush knew about 9/11 in advance and did nothing" conspiracy theory sounds wacko, just wait!  Not only the "swing voters" but many Democrats will vote for Bush (or not vote at all) rather than support that kind of ranting, raving lunacy.  Bush will be re-elected, of course. The more centrist Democrats will blame the Liberal Democrats (or, as Howard Dean calls them, "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party") for the loss, and they'll form their own fringe party.  The Classic Democratic party will take years to recover.

The second scenario is that Dick Gephardt (D-MO) will actually do quite well in the 2004 Democratic primaries, especially Iowa (19 Jan), New Hampshire (27 Jan) and Michigan (7 Feb).  That will give Terry McAuliffe, head of (that is, Bill Clinton's mouthpiece in) the Democratic National Committee, the grounds he needs to declare Gephardt the official Democratic Presidential Candidate.  After all, Gephardt's an affable, long-time politician who's done his time in the trenches. His biggest gaffe so far has been to state off-handedly, "When I'm President, we'll do executive orders to overcome any wrong thing the Supreme Court does tomorrow or any other day," but most people missed that one (or so McAuliffe and Gephardt hope).  Howard Dean's Liberals will, over the course of the summer, grow more bitter and angry at their own party, until they declare Howard Dean the "real" Democratic candidate.  With the Democratic vote badly split, President Bush will easily win. Again, the Classic Democratic party will take years to recover.

The third possibility, as likely as the others, is that Gephardt is pronounced the official candidate, but the Democrats manage to hold the party together until after the election. This will result in a much closer race, but a much more violent split after their defeat.  The Democrats might never fully recover from this scenario... at least not until 2008 when they rally behind Hillary Clinton.  And the only thing that would stop her from running would be a defeat in her re-election bid for New York Senator in 2006.

Who's the one person that could beat her with his hands tied behind his back? Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, it's time to rise to the occasion again!  But I'm getting ahead of myself... one election at a time.