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As the Iowa Caucus began, Dick Gephardt looked like a good bet, as one of the four Democrats tied for top place (along with Howard Dean, John Kerry and John Edwards). As the man most in touch with the labor unions, he seemed certain to get a large block of votes, as well as having the organisation to get his supporters to the right places at the right time. So why did end up in fourth place (instead of second, as I'd predicted)? What caused his support to dwindle to about half of what it had been, while many of those those union households went with Kerry or Edwards instead? If Iowa is supposed to be an indicator of the political pulse of middle America, then most of the people voting were "just folks" -- hard-working, everyday people, more interested in the impact of policy on their everyday lives than in high-sounding ideals that sound fine in Ivy League classrooms, but don't work in the real world, nor put food on the table. Just folks, representative of a huge portion of this country's people in what they want in a President, among other things. Mainstream America. And Gephardt won Iowa in 1988 with 31% of the vote. Enter Chrissy Gephardt. There's nothing wrong with being openly gay (my personal feelings on the matter aside). There's nothing wrong with championing gay issues (free speech being for everyone). There is, however, a great deal wrong with championing gay issues while stumping for your father, in a state like Iowa, in which he must do well in order to continue his campaign. Free speech has free consequences. Didn't even one of his advisors take her aside and say, "Hey, this is his campaign... not yours"? Didn't even one person tell her, "If you want to campaign for your father, you should talk about his big issues... not yours"? I feel badly for Dick Gephardt, I really do. His wish to include his daughter and her gay activist lifestyle in his life and campaign cost him his last possible shot at the Presidency, in my opinion. Many of the union households that Gephardt depended on apparently voted for Kerry or Edwards instead. Gephardt only received the support of one-third of union households. Perhaps Iowa really does reflect mainstream American values. Even among Democrats. |
| Mark from Colorado January 21, 2004 07:42 PM PST Gephardt was at least consistent. When talking about his health care proposal, he mentioned his son's cancer treatment. When talking about gay rights, he mentioned his daughter's lesbianism. But, I don't think this was the reason for his defeat. Dean saw Gephardt as his main opponent in Iowa and trained his sights on him. Gephardt returned fire. The result? Dean and Gephardt came in third and fourth. Is Dean finished? Can any candidate with fourty million dollars really be finished? | ||
| JM January 21, 2004 11:02 PM PST That was why I thought he'd really do well... his consistency. As for Dean... I stand by my 2004 predictions so far. He (or his followers) will be the cause of the self-destruction of the Democratic party. The attack ads hurt them both, but not as much as Chrissy stumping for her agenda instead her father's. "I will be a full-time live-in gay rights activist in the White House," she reportedly said. Classic Democrats don't want to hear that any more than Republicans do. Of course, I could see Gephardt being tapped for Vice President, especially if Kerry gets the nomination. | ||
| Mark from Colorado January 22, 2004 10:26 PM PST Predictions for the New Hampshire primary: (1st) Kerry, (2nd) Dean, (3rd) Clark (4th) Edwards (5th) Lieberman. Lieberman drops out after the results are in and doesn't endorse anyone. The other four move on to the Feb 3rd primaries. | ||
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